Weekly Focus: Positively Charged Energy News

Week Beginning November 14, 2022Hurricane Nicole became the first hurricane to make US landfall during November in 37 years. It also marked the latest date a hurricane has hit Florida’s East Coast. The storm made landfall as a Category 1 storm last Thursday, November 10, bringing gusty winds and soaking rain to the eastern US.
The strong demand for diesel has led to higher prices and tighter inventories as we begin the winter heating season. The current inventory supply is 25 days, where it was 34 days at this time last year.

Heating oil prices were up $0.066 per gallon on the East Coast this week, bringing the average to $5.934 per gallon, an increase of $2.521 per gallon from where prices were in 2021.
Gasoline is averaging $3.590 per gallon on the East Coast, up $0.068 per gallon from last week.
Diesel prices have risen $0.073 per gallon on the East Coast this week to an average of $5.473 per gallon. Compared to last year, diesel is up $1.761 per gallon.

Propane prices are starting to inch up, increasing $0.012 per gallon to an average of $3.416 per gallon on the East Coast.
Natural Gas
The NYMEX 12-month strip dropped $.33/dth on the week after price rises over the previous two weeks.  

On the supply side, the market saw an injection of 79 Bcf into storage, setting the deficit to the five year average at about 2%. This week is expected to see an injection of 55 Bcf for what is expected to be the last injection of the season. US gas production for the week averaged about 96.9 Bcf/day, slightly less than this fall’s peak but still enough to help stretch injections into mid-November. The market reacted to some offsetting data on the demand side as the most recent December weather forecasts are now showing warmer than expected temperatures isolated to the South Central US with the important Northeast now looking at forecasts slightly below normal. The cooler forecasts could be offset by recent expectations of the return of the Freeport LNG facility and it’s 2 Bcf/day of demand. The facility has yet to request to begin exporting, raising concerns a December start is now looking more probable.

Looking ahead, the market will be monitoring news on the Freeport return and watching November temperatures drop during the second half of the month.
Power forwards were down slightly for the week, however, with this morning’s move upward, that will likely be negated. 

NYC UCAP had some small gains in NYC with Zones G, H and I continuing its trend upward, while PJM RECs were relatively flat. 
Post-election, Maryland Governor-Elect Wes Moore has pledged 100% clean electricity to the state by 2035 with a goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045. In Massachusetts, Governor-Elect Maura Healy pledged 100% clean electricity by 2030 and net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.