Natural Gas Storage Report Withdrawal Season Week 16 (Week Ending February 16, 2018)

Expectation nearly met with reality this morning as the 124 Bcf storage withdrawal narrowly exceeded the anticipated pull of 120 Bcf. Falling short of the five-year average draw of 145 Bcf but managing to surpass last year’s value of 92 Bcf, this week’s storage movement leaves little excitement in a continually sideways market. As weather expectations turn colder in early March, particularly in the Northwest, Henry Hub futures on the current prompt month have seen some upward pressure since the beginning of the week. Despite this, temperatures are slated to level off in the major markets of the Northeast, which could potentially offset any sort of significant demand in the remaining regions for early next month. Even with the March contract set to expire on Monday, the holding pattern looks to be continuing for yet another week.

Working natural gas inventories currently stand at 1,760 Bcf. This figure is 609 Bcf (25.7%) less than this time last year and 412 Bcf (19.0%) below the five year average.

The March 2018 NYMEX Futures price started around $2.64/MMBtu prior to the report’s release and has since slightly increased to $2.65/MMBtu.

Outlook for the Balance of Storage Season:

The graph below compares historical 12, 24 and 36 month strip prices and storage levels for the past 5 years.

The following table shows the injection numbers we will need to average by week to hit selected historical levels:

The following two graphs show current natural gas in storage compared to each of the last 5 years and weekly storage averages and patterns.

The graph below shows the injections through the current week over the past 5 years.

Finally, the graphics below depicts the 6 to 10 day temperature range outlook from the National Weather Service.

Current Week’s Outlook

Future Outlook