| Winter Weather Outlook |
| NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has released its winter outlook, and based on this year’s El Niño, the northern part of the country is predicted to bring warmer and drier weather to the area, while places in the southern part of the country will be colder and wetter. Since the majority of our service area falls in between those two extremes, we’ll be at the mercy of what happens in the Atlantic. How predictable is El Niño? In 2015-2016, it was the warmest winter on record for the mainland U.S., but also brought about a snowstorm that slammed the East Coast with three feet of snow in some places at the end of January. The El Niño of 2009-2010 brought multiple blizzards to the northeast. So if the past is any indication, we could be looking at a very wet and snowy winter season. |
| Petroleum prices have risen 30% since June of this year, making prices on track to reach $100 per barrel by the end of September. What is causing the rise in prices? OPEC+ countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, have cut oil production creating supply concerns, while China is seeing a higher demand for crude oil. In addition, prices are on the rise due to an increase in air travel. Jet fuel has increased by 50% since May. Currently, AAA has the national average for a gallon of gasoline at $3.814 per gallon, while diesel is averaging $4.557. Compared to a month ago, gasoline is up $0.001 per gallon, while diesel is up $0.097 per gallon. During the first half of this year, propane exports from the United States increased 8%, making it the most exported petroleum product. The majority of propane exports are sent to Asia. Even though propane exports have increased, the price of propane has stayed steady for most of the season. Heating season officially starts in October, so be on the lookout for the EIA’s heating oil price report, which is due to come out October 4th. Electricity Construction has begun on a converter station in Astoria, Queens that will be the ending of the 339-mile Champlain Hudson Power Express transmission line. The converter station will convert 1,250 megawatts of clean energy from direct current to alternating current that will then feed the electricity grid in NYC. The construction of the converter is part of New York’s push towards 70% of the state’s electricity to come from renewable sources by 2030. Power prices have been holding steady for the entire summer. While the summer of 2023 will go down as Texas’s second hottest summer and the recording breaking heatwave the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast experienced in early September, PJM and NYISO only called for two peak alerts this summer, meaning there weren’t as many events causing spikes in electricity use in our region. Day-ahead prices for power are down anywhere from $0.25-$0.90/MWh for the Calendar 2023 term. If the weather stays warmer than average, electricity prices should hold steady until temperatures begin to fall. |