| Week Beginning August 7, 2023 The weather is still wreaking havoc on the country. Millions of people who live in the Eastern United States are at risk for severe weather on Monday that could include damaging wind, large hail, lots of rain, and the possibility of tornadoes. Meanwhile, places like Arizona and Florida will continue to see record-breaking temperatures. Austin, Texas marked 30 consecutive days with high temperatures over 100 degrees Fahrenheit on Sunday. |
| Saudi Arabia announced it will extend its 1 million barrel per day production cut through September. Saudi Arabia also cut it’s production by the same amount in July and August voluntarily. Gasoline saw a spike in prices last week, increasing $0.158 per gallon on the East Coast. The average price per gallon is now $3.646. Compared to 2022, gasoline prices are still down $0.448 per gallon. Diesel prices also increased last week to an average of $4.153 per gallon, an increase of $0.182 per gallon. When compared to 2022, diesel prices are down $1.028 per gallon. Propane prices were down about $0.01 per gallon in New York State to an average of $3.12 per gallon. |
| The NYMEX 12-month strip dropped $0.06/dth on the week and continues its state of relatively low volatility. Supply and demand fundamentals again mainly offset each other to keep prices from moving much. On the supply side, the storage injection came in at another low number, just 14 Bcf, as strong cooling demand in parts of the country continues to keep lesser amounts of gas available for injection. Storage surpluses dropped again to 12% over the five-year average and 22.5% over last year’s average. The Baker Hughes rig count is stuck at 128 on the week, the first week since the end of May with no change in the number of rigs. Production companies continue to make comments on production goals for the rest of the year. Important Marcellus producer Southwestern Energy echoed Range Resources from the week before and stated plans to maintain its flat production plans for the rest of this year before potentially increasing production in 2024. CEOs of both companies are hopeful gas prices rise in 2024 as more LNG facilities come online, increasing demand. These tepid supply data points didn’t move the market much during the week as short-term cooling demand is currently not forecasted to be higher than average in the large Midwest and Northeast demand centers. In New York City, there are no projected days reaching 90 degrees for the next two weeks. Early forecasts for September are stretching out current conditions – average temperatures are forecast in the Northeast and Midwest, with best chances for above average heat confined to the West and Texas. Looking ahead, as we continue in August, the market will continue to watch for any unexpected heat to move the market. Storage level cushions to the one- and five-year averages have decreased over the last few weeks, but the market has shrugged off that news. Another smaller injection is expected this week – we’ll see if a third week of low injections is enough to worry the market. |
| Power forwards were up $1/MWh last week for the 12-month strip. NYISO UCAP was relatively unchanged. Overall, the New York City and Zones G, H, and I capacity markets continue to lack liquidity, and they’re now showing signs of even lower levels of liquidity. PJM RECs were mainly flat. |
| Scientists at Stanford University have created a solar panel that can generate electricity at night through a process of radiative cooling. Radiative cooling works when the panels radiate heat out to space during the night, which creates a temperature difference between the panels and the air temperature. The scientists then installed a thermoelectric generator onto the solar panels and the temperature difference between night and day is then harnessed to produce electricity. |