| Week Beginning July 10, 2023 The war in Ukraine with Russia has been going on for over 500 days. The milestone was hit on Saturday. Peace talks are not on the table, and Ukraine is pushing to recapture territory Russia illegally annexed. |
| For the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, refining capacity in the United States has increased. So far in 2023, the U.S. is averaging 18.1 million barrels per calendar day. In 2022, that was 17.9 million barrels per calendar day. Gasoline prices on the East Coast were down $0.033 per gallon this week, bringing the average to $3.372 per gallon. Compared to 2022, prices are down $1.219 per gallon. Diesel prices were down $0.042 per gallon on the East Coast this week, with the average going for $3.811 per gallon. Compared to last year, diesel prices are down $1.902 per gallon. Propane prices in New York have been steady most of the year. This week, propane prices rose $0.01 per gallon to make the average $3.20 per gallon. |
| The NYMEX 12-month strip dropped $0.11/dth last week to slightly ease off of the recent highs reached in late June. On the supply side, the storage injection came in at 68 Bcf on the week, with a volume reclassification adding 4 Bcf to that number, ultimately growing the gas in storage by 72 Bcf – keeping the total at 15% over the five-year average and 25% over the one-year average. The market also took note of the Baker Hughes gas rig count on the week, which surprisingly showed an increase of 11 rigs from the previous week to buck the year long trend of less gas focused rigs in place. The current 135 rigs are still almost 20 below totals for early July last year. On the demand side, LNG demand continues to rebound to pre-spring maintenance levels – with last week’s price action perhaps signaling that the 9% price increase off early June NYMEX strip lows having already baked in the expectation of normal LNG demand. As we head into mid-July, excessive cooling demand needs around the country remain mixed as Texas and the Gulf Coast continue to see some intense heat, while Northeast demand centers show needs closer to normal. New York City is currently only forecasting one day above 90 degrees for the rest of July. August may continue that trend with the Gulf Coast showing a greater likelihood of above average temperatures as compared to the Northeast. Looking ahead, the market will continue to watch for any changes to the entrenched weather patterns with heat in the Gulf Coast and more normal temperatures in the Northeast. |
| Power forwards were up about $2/MWh last week for the 12-month strip. NYISO UCAP saw a 15% jump in New York City summer 2024. All other zones and periods were mixed with small movements. Overall, the New York City and Zones G, H, and I capacity markets continue to lack liquidity, and they’re now showing signs of even lower levels of liquidity. PJM Class 1 and 2 RECs were down significantly for the first time in a while. |
| Many large corporations are doing their part to go green. Amazon’s Air Hub in Kentucky is home to 5,600 solar panels on its roof, which is enough to produce 2 MW of electricity to power 400 homes. |