Natural Gas Storage Report Withdrawal Season Week 6 (Week Ending December 8, 2017)

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Winter weather outlooks are getting warmer, and the bears are out of hibernation. Today, the EIA reported a seemingly bullish withdrawal of 69 Bcf as compared to the market expectation of 60 Bcf, but the recent market slide just kept rolling. By comparison, this time last year saw a pull of 147 Bcf, and the five year average stands at 65 Bcf. Overnight weather models suggest a major shift from previous iterations, proposing a relatively large decrease in heating degree days, specifically through the Christmas holiday to the New Year. Near-term cold is expected to effect the Mid-Atlantic, but market reactions still remain to be seen.

Working natural gas in storage currently stands at 3,626 Bcf, which is 201 Bcf (5.5%) less than this time last year and 27 Bcf (0.7%) below the five year average.

The January 2018 NYMEX future was slightly elevated at just under $2.70/MmBTU and has since retreated to just over $2.67/MmBTU.

Outlook for the Balance of Storage Season:

The graph below compares historical 12, 24 and 36 month strip prices and storage levels for the past 5 years.

The following table shows the injection numbers we will need to average by week to hit selected historical levels:

The following two graphs show current natural gas in storage compared to each of the last 5 years and weekly storage averages and patterns.

The graph below shows the injections through the current week over the past 5 years.

Finally, the graphics below depicts the 6 to 10 day temperature range outlook from the National Weather Service.

Current Week’s Outlook

Future Outlook