As of October 29, 2026, forward power prices in eastern PJM, including New Jersey, are near 12-month lows, while Maryland hubs BGE and PEPCO remain near all-time highs. Mild weather and softer natural gas have pressured eastern prices, but PJM’s outlook for higher wholesale costs and capacity prices continues to shape the risk for businesses heading into winter.
The contrast is a reminder that PJM is not one uniform market. A low forward price in New Jersey does not signal the same opportunity, or exposure, as a high price in Maryland. For businesses reviewing contracts before winter demand and year-end schedules take over, the current buying window is worth assessing now.
1. Two PJM markets are moving in opposite directions
In its October 29, 2026 market update, Premier Energy Management reports eastern PJM forward pricing, including New Jersey, near 12-month lows. Mild weather and softer natural gas prices have weighed on the forward curve. The same report says Maryland’s BGE and PEPCO hubs are at or near all-time highs, with Calendar 2027 prices still around the 95th percentile of their three-year ranges.
The regional split reflects differences in supply and demand, including growing data-center load in Maryland. It also shows why a general PJM price headline can be misleading: the relevant signal depends on the business’s utility territory and contract delivery period.
For New Jersey businesses, lower eastern forwards may provide an opportunity to evaluate fixed-price supply offers. They do not guarantee that every business will receive the same price, or that a supplier’s offer will move in step with a wholesale benchmark.
2. Lower gas expectations do not remove electricity-market risk
Natural gas inventories and the forward gas curve are comparatively soft signals heading into winter. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s October 6, 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook estimates that U.S. storage will reach 3,850 billion cubic feet (Bcf) at the end of October, 2% above the five-year average, as the heating season begins.
For 2027, EIA forecasts Henry Hub natural gas to average $3.16 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), 9% below its 2026 forecast. Separately, ENGIE’s October 29 NYMEX futures report shows the February 2027 contract near $3.13/MMBtu. That contract price is a point on the futures curve, not EIA’s annual forecast.
Power prices, however, also reflect demand, generation availability and regional grid conditions. EIA’s October outlook forecasts PJM wholesale electricity prices to rise 41% in 2026 compared with 2025. That is an annual forecast, not a claim that every PJM hub or commercial retail rate has risen by 41%.
Capacity adds a further cost signal. PJM’s July 14, 2026 auction for the 2028/2029 delivery year cleared at the $325 per megawatt-day (MW-day) price cap and came up 6,831 MW short of its stated reliability requirement, according to PJM results reported by Mgrid. The $325 figure is an auction clearing price for capacity, not an hourly energy price or a direct forecast of a particular customer’s bill.
A comparison with the 2024/2025 auction price of $28.92/MW-day indicates an increase of more than 1,000% by the 2028/2029 auction. Those prices relate to different delivery years, so the comparison illustrates the scale of the increase rather than a like-for-like annual change. The numbers point to a market where a softer fuel outlook and elevated reliability costs can coexist.
3. Why a fixed-price contract can act like insurance
For a business, a fixed-price supply contract is not a prediction that market prices will rise. It is a way to establish greater price certainty for the supply components covered by the agreement, reducing exposure to future commodity-price movement during the contract term.
That certainty can be useful when energy is a significant operating expense or when budgets need to be set ahead of the winter season. Restaurants, hotels, manufacturers, real estate portfolios and data centers have different load shapes, but each can benefit from understanding what portion of its expected energy cost a fixed-price offer would secure.
Before making a decision, compare offers using the same usage assumptions and contract term. Review which components are included in each quoted rate and consider whether the price structure aligns with the business’s budget priorities. A headline rate alone does not show how a proposal will perform across an operating year.
The current New Jersey opportunity is therefore a window to evaluate and secure an appropriate rate, not a guarantee that prices will remain at today’s levels. Forward markets can move in response to weather, fuel prices and supply conditions, particularly as winter demand approaches.
4. A practical pre-winter buying checklist
Before holiday-season schedules and year-end budgeting narrow the time available for review, businesses can prepare a focused procurement assessment:
Confirm contract dates. Identify expiration dates, renewal lead times and notice requirements across every site.
Collect recent bills and usage data. Twelve months is a useful baseline; 24 months can help reveal seasonal patterns and changes in operations.
Check the service location. Confirm the utility territory and market zone for each account. New Jersey and Maryland face different forward-price conditions.
Review the load profile. Consider monthly consumption, peak demand, operating hours and expected changes such as expansion, tenant turnover or equipment upgrades.
Compare offers on consistent terms. Use comparable contract periods and usage assumptions to evaluate the price and budget implications.
Assess budget certainty. Decide how much price stability the business needs, then compare fixed-price options against that objective.
This process applies across sectors. A hotel may have a steady, around-the-clock load, while a manufacturer’s demand may follow production schedules. A data center may need to account for planned load growth, and a commercial property owner may be managing multiple meters and tenant profiles. The buying strategy should reflect each operation rather than rely on a single market headline.
5. Keep your usage and contract data current
A procurement decision depends on the accuracy of the data used to compare offers. Ongoing visibility into consumption, costs and budget performance can help businesses identify changes and understand whether actual usage matches the assumptions behind their energy strategy.
For multi-location businesses, consolidating bills and usage data across properties supports budget reviews and makes it easier to spot when a facility’s consumption no longer matches the assumptions behind its contract. Regular bill reviews also surface billing errors and tariff changes that a busy operations schedule can otherwise leave unexamined.
6. Assess the window before winter buying conditions change
The market picture entering winter is mixed: eastern PJM forwards near 12-month lows, Maryland forwards near record levels, natural gas inventories forecast 2% above the five-year average, and PJM wholesale prices forecast 41% higher in 2026 than in 2025. Each figure measures something different; together, they underline the need for location-specific procurement decisions.
Businesses with contracts due for renewal can use the current period to compare fixed-price options, evaluate their usage data and decide how much budget certainty they require before winter demand advances. Waiting may bring a different market, but it does not guarantee a better offer.
United Energy Consultants is independent, has no supplier affiliations and works across deregulated states. The company uses business usage data to negotiate energy contracts and develop custom buying strategies, with zero out-of-pocket costs to clients and more than 20 years of experience. To review your business’s energy data and evaluate contract options, contact United Energy Consultants, and see UEC’s fall energy buying playbook.