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Despite what the thermometer says, today really is the first day of fall! Temperatures are well into the 80’s throughout the region which is good news for those with Seasonal Affective Disorder, but bad news for everyone who has already shut off their AC (Really people, it’s ok to turn it back on for a day). Nevertheless, we are undaunted by mercury’s rollercoaster and happily bring you this week’s Jolt. HEATING OIL  Prompt-month heating…

After a succession of trading days that remained mostly sideways, the market has begun to respond to a bearish 84 Bcf injection that exceeded expectations and the five-year average while matching the injection for the same time period last year. Despite the majority of the Lower 48 skewing hotter than normal during the reporting period, NYMEX futures are sliding back into a somewhat bearish state for the shoulder season. Major…

Atlantic Coast Pipeline Remains Halted as Developers Wait on Court Decisions – “There are currently two federal permits under review–one issued by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and one issued by the U.S. Forest Service–that are needed if construction is to continue.” Why this is important: The Atlantic Coast pipeline will intersect the Appalachian Trail 600 feet below the trail itself, but the U.S. Fourth Circuit has ruled the…

The recent rally realized on NYMEX futures really remains on the technical side with what is being reported as a “short squeeze”, and the lack of strong fundamentals lately can mostly corroborate this. Regarding fundamentals, this week’s 78 Bcf injection fell a little short of the mark compared to expectation in the market, but still eclipsed both notable historical values. With both Labor Day weekend and Dorian to account for…

Hurricane Dorian has avoided causing notable demand destruction on its path that currently runs in parallel to multiple east coast markets, but the unrelenting presence and strength of natural gas production paired with recent dips in LNG exports have resulted in yet another bearish injection that supplemented storage inventories by 84 Bcf. This exceeded all of the usual metrics, both market expectations and historical values, so even with NYMEX seemingly…

EIA’s reported injection of 60 Bcf was mostly a non-event but could be seen as a tad bearish since it surpassed a few market expectations while staying within a common range. It even fell between last year’s 66 Bcf build and the five-year average of 57 Bcf for the same time period. All in all, the fundamentals showed little surprises as the South and West continued to see heat as…

Real time rates in ERCOT may have caught some heat this last week, but storage continued to build and meet expectations with a 59 Bcf injection. Yet again surpassing last year’s 47 Bcf build and the five-year average of 51 Bcf, natural gas inventories are chugging along just fine, and the consensus (so far) is that the Lower 48 should be well supplied for the upcoming winter with a projected…

Heating Oil Prompt-month heating oil futures increased 0.27% for the week ending Friday, 8/16, as prices rose $0.0048 per gallon. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude futures for delivery in September closed at $54.87 per barrel on Friday, 8/16, up 0.24% for the day, and up 0.68% for the week. Crude oil prices were up slightly last week and continued to rise on Monday, trading just under $56 a…

August has been a hot month so far, and this certainly has been reflected in the most recent injection of 49 Bcf into storage. This value fell significantly short of expectations that ranged from 58 Bcf to 61 Bcf, surpassed last year’s injection of 35 Bcf, and matched the five-year average. Fundamentally, a majority of the Lower 48 saw above normal temperatures which are expected to hold through next week…

Lower than expected injections are in short supply this summer, and this week’s build of 55 Bcf ended up joining that group as it failed to meet the market expectation of 59 Bcf. Despite that, the current change in storage still eclipsed last year’s 46 Bcf build along with the five-year average of 43 Bcf. Fundamentally, hot weather made its presence known in the Northeast, West, and Texas regions, while…